Football

NostraDONus: Big 10 landing a 12th will have domino effect in CFB

Call them the Big Tentative.

At least that is the reputation of the Big 10 conference over the past decade as they’ve been reluctant to change and bypassed by the SEC and Big 12 as the premier football conference after each organized enough teams, that being 12, to conduct an annual conference championship game. With conference championship games rising in stature to the degree that players, coaches, alumni and fans value a victory in these games just below a berth in the BCS national championship and above any other bowl appearance, including BCS games.

Enter the Big Tent.

This week the Big 10, which really includes 11 teams but had as few as nine member schools during World War II, announced its desire to find a 12^th suitor over the next 18 months to round out the conference and create more problems for elementary math students and those hoping to gain entry to Ohio State University, where entrance exams for football players in the Woody Hayes era included the question “How many teams are in the Big 10?”

Queue the Big Tentacle.

The reverberations of this addition will create a domino effect for the Pac 10 and Big East to build to 12 teams so as to not lose ground against the four BCS conferences (ACC, Big 12, SEC and Big 10) that would then boast a conference championship. For proponents of a playoff system, the ramifications could weaken their argument as conferences will weed-out some national championship contenders through upsets and strengthen others through monumental victories.

Here are TeflonDon’s predictions for how this realignment will sort itself out over the next three years.

Candidates for the Big 10⁺¹⁺¹

Top Choice: Notre Dame. It should not be incumbent on the Big 10 to pursue the Irish, rather Notre Dame should be knocking on the door of the Big 10 offices in Chicago begging for a spot at the table. Notre Dame has knocked itself off of its lofty perch as one of college football’s elite schools as its independent schedule and lack of focus in recruiting have hampered its ability to compete at the national level and offer students the kind of experience offered at Big 12 or SEC school where players can play in a warmer climate and a conference championship game.

 Opponents of this will argue that it is too difficult for Notre Dame to re-shuffle its NBC TV contract.  Bah. The NBC contract is the main reason this marriage should be consummated. The Big 10 needs a big network to pitch its teams as has occurred with CBS and the SEC. Having a random primetime game on ABC and noontime duels on ESPN and ESPN2 just doesn’t cut it.

Notre Dame would easily be the choice to showcase on the NBC national Big 10 game several times a year when they play Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State in conference games and USC in a non-conference game. Additionally, there will always be another Big 10 team in the national rankings when they face Notre Dame, which would make it another marquee match-up.

Other Candidates:

Pittsburgh. The city identifies itself more as a Midwestern town than the locations of its sister universities in the Big East. It would also seal the state of Pennsylvania for the Big 10, strengthen a natural rivalry with Penn State, and project the Big 10 image closer to the east coast.

Syracuse. The only other candidate from the Big East would be the Orange. Unlike Pittsburgh, it is truly a Big East school but, like Pitt, it would stretch the Big 10 tentacles into the New York City and the Northeast similar to what would occur with the addition of Notre Dame, albeit not as forcefully.

Long Shots:

Louisville or Cincinnati. These schools sit at the southern edge of Big 10 country but have strong ties to the region. Cincinnati has risen to the top of the Big East, but doesn’t have the facilities to accommodate the big names of the Big 10 during football and basketball season. Louisville is building a new basketball arena and has a new football stadium, a premier basketball program and a football program that shows it can occasionally compete the big time programs.

Missouri. Rumors were swirling 10 years ago that Mizzou would be interested in joining the Big 10. They have a strong historic presence in the former Big 8 and ties to other schools in the north division that make this less of a possibility. However, Missouri struggles to compete for recruits with Nebraska and Oklahoma, which raid the Kansas City metropolitan area every year. The Big 10 tie may be strong enough to counter these recruiting assaults.

Candidates for the new Pac 10⁺²

Top Choice: Utah and BYU. The rivals in the annual Holy War come as a package deal with facilities that rival or surpass other Pac 10 schools (see Washington State, Oregon State and Cal). The Utes and Cougars have long been recognized as elite western programs that have transcended the drawbacks of their former alliance with the WAC and now with the Mountain West Conference. The Utes have won two BCS games and played in the national championship game in basketball under Rick Majerus in 1998.

The Pac 10 has the most geographically relevant set of rivalry games of any conference in the country, with longtime bitter rivals being located in the same state or metropolitan area – Washington/Washington State, Oregon/Oregon State, Cal/Stanford, USC/UCLA, Arizona/Arizona State. Adding Utah and BYU to the mix continues this tradition and would make for a very exciting rivalry weekend as a stage for teams seeking a berth in the Pac 10 championship game.

Long Shots: UNLV and San Diego State. These schools might have been the favorites as 10 or 15 years ago when both were more prominent on the national college sports scene. The lack of facilities and sharing of football stadiums with other uses is a major drawback, plus it creates an awkward match-up as a rivalry during the final weekend of the regular season.

Candidates for the Big East

Finding four additional teams to join the league will only be made worse for the Big East if Pitt or Syracuse dart to the Big 10. This would leave the Big East with seven teams and in need of five more to get to the required 12. If Notre Dame is not the Big 10 choice, don’t look for them to be too eager to join the Big East as the Irish have done for all of their other sports.

So who do they get? Their only choice is to raid Conference USA and run the risk of weakening the conference in the eyes of the polls, fans and the powers that grant them BCS status.

The field of candidates looks like this (and none are very appetizing): East Carolina, Memphis, Marshall, and Central Florida should be at the top of the list if they need four teams and have any hope of keeping it “east”. You can make a case that all are respectable in at least one major sport. Any of these schools would leap at the opportunity and the Big East can’t afford to be very picky, particularly following the addition of South Florida and Connecticut, which were also respectable in at least one sport but did not have big time caché. 

© 2009 Teflon Don Sports.